The Great Churning

The Great Churning
By Narendra Luther

The heat and dust of elections is over. We have a new government at the Centre, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. This is the first national government of the new century. The results were full of surprises. The NDA coalition did not expect to be beaten so badly. The Congress did not expect to do so well. Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh was expecting to get a new term though the Congress seemed to equally sure of throwing him out. And that is what happened.

Numerous analyses have been made. Let me give you mine. The first is beware of politicians because they never die. How many people whom we had written off have risen from their graves as it were? Patience is a virtue in politics. After all we have to choose from those who stay on.

Naidu's' defeat

Remember Lord Acton's maxim: power corrupts? One way of doing that is by making the holder of power blind. After a while in power one stops seeing things as they are . Those who are in charge of showing things do not do so accurately because they know that it is risky to do so. They show their masters the things and trends, which they want to see. It happened to Indira Gandhi during the elections after the Emergency. She was told by her coterie including the Intelligence agencies right till the end that she was winning while in fact she was losing. It happened this time too. Naidu believed that he had done so much for the people that they would gratefully vote for him. He also felt that having survived an attack on him, people would have sympathy for him. He did not realize that in the countryside he had not done adequately. While there was no power cut in Hyderabad and some urban areas, the farmers suffered. He projected a larger-than –life image in urban areas and outside the State, even internationally. But his voters were in rural areas.

He also centralized power too much. No one else mattered in the government or the party except him. While it seems a good thing when the going is good, in the battle of the ballot, you need layers and layers of cadres who will go out in the heat and fight. Centralization kills initiative at lower levels and breeds dissidence below the surface. Naidu nurtured an illusion and that was his undoing. He became a prisoner of his chosen babus. They did not – indeed could not -- correct his thinking and policies on crucial matters. It is the bureaucratic embrace that killed him.

Another factor that went against him was the inability to see the strength of the sentiment for a separate Telangana State. The hearts of people of Andhra and Telangana have never met. Some prominent leaders of Telangana had reservations about the creation of Visalandhra. The States Reorganization Commission did not recommend it straightaway. But somehow it was pushed through. Whenever the demand of Telangana is raised seriously, it finds touches a responsive chord amongst the people of the region. Even the people of the coastal areas are not very happy carrying on with a disgruntled region.

Vajpayee's feet of clay

What killed NDA was Gujarat. It was no ordinary rioting. It was carnage and was seen as such not only by Muslims, but a majority of Hindus too. It was a massive failure of administration. Unfortunately, instead of admitting it as such and taking remedial action, they sought to condone and even glorify it. Narendra Modi did not show any remorse. His party lionized him. If Narendra Modi had resigned after the riots, NDA would have secured a moral victory. If Vajpayee had sacked him for his failure or alleged connivance, his party and his alliance would have romped home. It was the lack of moral fibre, which threw out a party, and a leader who was being projected a statesman.

BJP and NDA also became victims of their own illusion, much like Naidu in AP. The slogan of 'India Shining' was, if any thing, an urban phenomenon. It meant little to people in the countryside who had seen no improvement in their standard of living. The government in Delhi did not seem to be doing any thing. The Dalit daughter went on her spree of collecting money and no one could touch her lest she should go to the other side or turn openly hostile. People saw a decline in moral values of a vast magnitude. The Tehelka episode was another thing, which besmirched the image of government. The Defence Minister resigned and then when the inquiry was taking too long, he came back. That did not add glory to the ruling coalition. The parliamentary principle of vicarious responsibility of the minister for the sins of omission and commission of his ministry was upheld to begin with -- and then jettisoned.

The result of the new elections is a new coalition of parties. As I said in one of my earlier articles in this magazine, coalition politics is based on compromises. It is a game of survival in power. It is smitten in its approach to issues by a consideration of not offending anyone. It is government by expedience. But we seem to be condemned to be governed by coalitions.

Sonia's noble gesture

While the vote was decidedly against the BJP, it was not decidedly in favour of the Congress. What it definitely rejected was the issue of the foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi. She got the largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha. But she did not get absolute majority. The Congress had therefore to depend on some other parties and groups. The Left was a prominent part of this group being the third largest party in the Lok Sabha.

The most moving part of the elections was that when the crown was offered to Sonia Gandhi, and she, in a rare and dramatic gesture, declined it. She said she had never pursued power. She wanted to lead her party to victory. Having done that, and promising to continue to do that, she stepped aside and offered the crown to one of the least political of persons in the Indian politics. The man, Manmohan Singh, is known for his expertise, his integrity -- and despite all that -- his humility. That gesture by Sonia Gandhi shocked her supporters and baffled her opponents. The one-point agenda that they had against her was rejected. Their biggest guns of BJP were silenced. Their ammunition was rendered useless. They – and other cynics -- have put uncharitable interpretations on one of the noblest acts of self –abnegation in history. They alleged that Sonia Gandhi would rule indirectly, by remote control a la Bal Thackeray and thus enjoy power without responsibility. That is the prerogative of the president of the ruling party. All said and done, the noble aspect of the decision of Sonia Gandhi needs to be acknowledged as something extremely rare.

***

Archived by www.mygoldencopy.com

Hobson’s Choice – Not Mine

Hobson’s Choice – Not Mine
By Narendra Luther

The Roman statesman, Cicero advised rulers that if they could not give bread to people, let them give circus. The democratic equivalent of circus is elections – all the more so after Maneka Gandhi’s tirade against cruelty to animals resulted in a drastic reduction in the conventional circus shows. Of course cruelty to humans has been a dominant feature of all history and so there is no escape from it.

We had still some months before the nest elections were due. But Chandrababu Naidu in his punarajanama advanced the elections in Andhra Pradesh. What he does today, the rest of the country does tomorrow. So, the ruling coalition at the Centre also decided to seek punarajanama. Karnataka can’t remain behind Andhra Pradesh. Orissa also cried ‘me too’. So, now we are in for a mini-General Elections.

Face replaces Faith

Elections are a churning of the country. Political parties suddenly come alive and start reorganizing themselves. Persons who have been waiting for changing courses find it opportune to do so at the time of elections. Since politics of faith has lapsed, the politics of faces has emerged. In the new scheme of things there is a great demand for good–lookers. They are generally found in the world of films. So, actors and actresses are being recruited in a big way on all sides. Rumour has it that political parties are paying them hefty fees for joining parties unlike other ordinary mortals who have to pay to get a ticket. Of all the people from the worlds of acting, Shatrughan Sinha, put it aptly when he said, ‘Acting has glamour, politics has power. I have seen both. Power is better.’ It is an unfortunate trend. It demeans politics, that is, if there is any more scope to do so. Politics should be a civil war of ideologies. Now it is being transformed into beauty contests. Actors who deliver brave dialogues scripted by faceless writers, will now mouth inanities from open platforms. They have no understanding of, or interest in, any ideology. They will only go to add numbers to the membership of different political parties in the legislatures. We deserve better.

Slanging Match

Did Lord Tennyson have the Indian elections in mind when he said

‘…blind and naked Ignorance
Delivers brawling judgments, unashamed
On all things, all day long’.

. Now the pre-election clamour and cacophony has started. There is excitement in the air-- and also depression. Excitement is for those who have hopes of coming into power; depression for those who have to make a choice without really having a choice!

Mind-boggling adjustments and alliances are being worked out. Parties, which swore at each other, are now swearing by common causes. Every morning in the papers and every hour on the electronic media the average citizen gets his dose of surprises. He has become immune to shocks. The endless shifts and emergence of new conglomerations amongst various groups defies common sense, logic and the sense of decency. That is because the parameters of individual behaviour are different from those of politics. In politics ends justify means – and on the eve of election, ends also justify being mean!

At the time of writing, manifestoes of different parties are being ‘crafted’ by way of a formality. The slogan of ‘Garibi Hatao’ has become stale and hence given up. Earlier, ‘Roti, Kapda and Makan’ has long been the triune slogan of shouting brigades. All these items are deemed to have been provided to the people. So, the new slogan is for Pani, Bijli and Sadak. This is so that people can drink enough water to be able to walk on roads in good light in search of better opportunities!

None of these

And we will be asked to exercise our ‘precious vote’ to elect our representatives. But what is the choice we have? We will have to pick up one or the other out of persons who are put up by various parties or cabals. They will include persons who are charge-sheeted or are under investigation and may be on bail on technical grounds. Yet our choice will have to be limited to these persons only. That is because the law as yet does not disqualify people who are charge-sheeted. And parties dare not ignore them because of their ‘winnability’.

There have been talks about barring ‘tainted’ people from contesting elections. But in the absence on any provision of law, that cannot be done. If there were, according to the election commissioner, Krishnamurthy, the Chief Election Commissioner, 40 persons with criminal record in the last parliament, chances are that there will be more this time. The Lok Satta in Andhra Pradesh has released a list of 51 likely candidates with shady credentials.

Our so-called ‘precious right to vote’ loses all its value because it is limited to the slate on offer. Our freedom of choice therefore becomes meaningless because it cannot go beyond the panel.

What then is the voter to do? The right to elect logically implies a right to reject. Some political thinkers in our country, including the former Vice President, the late Krishan Kant advocated that right. But there is no likelihood of a legislation of that type being enacted. The Law Commission had suggested in 1999 the incorporation of this option by adding a button on the electronic voting machine. The Election Commission had supported this proposal. But the Government has spiked it on the pleas that it needs discussion amongst parties.

Absolute Majority

Coupled with that, there should be a law making it compulsory for a candidate to secure an absolute majority –not the maximum number of votes -- to get elected. That will compel parties to rise above religion, caste and community in the selection of candidates because none of them by itself can manage to secure an absolute majority. In an interesting satirical article in the Times of India on March 16, 2004 Jug Suraiya showed how a legislator elected by 23.75% votes rationalized his non-performance. He explained to his electors that he did 23.75% of every thing he was supposed to do. Come to think of it, a person elected on the basis of 23.75 % votes had 76. 25% of the electorate against him!

The requirement of absolute majority for election is prevalent in many countries – and even in elections within political parties.

These two reforms – of the elector’s a right to reject all the candidates, and the candidate’s obligation to secure an absolute majority of votes are necessary to make our elections meaningful.

However, it is unlikely that our legislators who are the beneficiaries of the present imperfect system will ever introduce these reforms. Till then we will continue to remain playthings in the hands of politicians. So, we must continue to protest. Maybe, who knows, the impossible might happen.

* * *
Archived by www.mygoldencopy.com

On having a holiday

On having a holiday
By Narendra Luther


What is this life if, full of care, /we have not time to stand and stare? complained the poet W.H. Davies. We get so much engrossed in the routine of life that we forget that there are some finer aspects to it. For appreciating that, an escape from the dreary schedule is necessary. A break from work also enables you to have a fresh look at the work you are doing -- and the way you are doing it. You reflect on the worthwhileness of your goals and the manner of their pursuit. In short, even to do the same things better, it is desirable to have a holiday. It refreshes your mind and recharges your batteries. That is why all organizations provide for holidays – some even pay for them. But such is our reluctance to break from the daily grind that we ask for encashment of leave entitlement instead of having a holiday. Much of the misery in our lives and flatness in our dealings would be avoided if every one were forced to go on leave once a year.

I must hasten to add here that I myself have been guilty of not practising what I have preached. Years have rolled by without a holiday. But every time I take a break, I blame myself for not doing it more frequently. One can have a holiday anytime, but the best time for that in India is summer. And the best holiday is to escape to the hills. The best of hills are of course the Himalayas. That is where you can see snow any time of the year—at least from a distance.

The Escape

A holiday came my way last month. My friend, Pavi Sarin had organized the launch of two of my books at Chandigarh. He recommended that after that I could run up to the hills for a week or so. The suggestion was tempting and I succumbed. My wife too was keen to visit Manali, the hill station made popular by Nehru, and now by Vajpayee.
A holiday is best enjoyed in early youth in a group, in full youth with a mate, in middle age, with the family. For an old couple it is advisable to have an intermediary. I chose my wife’s brother, Manmohan for the job. He is a gourmet, a good cook and a good teller of tales. What I can say in ten words or one minute, he will stretch to a thousand words or an hour. He has a razor- sharp memory for details including names of persons, places and dates that never existed. He is rich -- and generous. I envy his faculty for making friends in an instant and mixing with strangers in no time. He makes an excellent foil for a couple, who left to them, would have nothing to say to each other.

Heavenly abode

Pavi had arranged for a break for us at Palampur. He said that the view of snow-capped mountains from our resort was magical and was guaranteed to lift our spirits. In five hours we were there. He was right. It was mildly cold. Suresh Bhasin, the owner of the Silver Oak Resort, is an amiable ex-Air Force officer. The place was informal with no frills. Food was good and service prompt. We had long walks, visited Sarin’s tea estate and enjoyed two nights there. Pavi had also thoughtfully arranged a lunch meeting with some of the eminent persons of the town. Dr. Ahuja of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, and Dr. Negi, the Vice Chancellor of the HP Agriculture University told us that they were trying to get the Palampur tea its due place in the export of India. We got some advice on how to savour the true taste of tea -- which meant no milk or sugar.

Dr. S.S. Johl, the eminent agricultural economist of India, and a former chairman of the Agricultural Prices Commission, has a house in Chandigarh, but escapes to Palampur ever so often Despite being knowledgeable, he is a charming conversationalist. Once someone asked him why he did not bring his family with him to Palampur. He replied, ‘You go to heaven alone, not with your family’. When he told a friend about the bliss of staying all by himself in the hills, he was told that only those who are full up inside could stay alone. These two statements say volumes about Palampur and using it as a retreat.

I had picked up three books awaiting perusal, but on second thoughts, I dropped them all. What is the use of going to a scenic spot and getting curled up in the bed reading a book. One should go to a holiday in the hills for enjoying nature, not to spurn it. In the event, I had human company -- and nature. Looking back, it was a good decision. If you do not take any book to the hills, you can bring back material for one.

Our Qualis van, which swallowed miles on plains, took time to negotiate the hilly bends and climbs. It is very frustrating to go up the hills only to come down, again to go up. Sometime all this up-and-down business had to be undertaken only to cross a rivulet, or to go from one range of mountain only to go up another. In that respect, I found Italy has done a remarkable job. That country is eighty percent hills. Yet the highways go in a straight line. They have cut through mountains with miles of tunnels. My host in Italy drove me 120 kilometers in ninety minutes flat. The same distance in Indian hills through serpentine roads takes five hours. I hope one day there will be bridges across gorges and tunnels through mountains to cut the travel time and to bring hills closer to plains. The continuous murmur of rivulets all along the journey was soothing. I was reminded of Shakespeare’s famous metaphor of finding brooks in the running brooks tongues in trees and sermons in stones. Our stay at Manali was the highlight of our holiday. When our cell phone stopped working there, Manmohan invoked Johl’s line: there are no phones in heaven.

New insights

As with Bacon, travel is education. One is exposed to new sights, sounds, landscape, and ideas. I found that in Delhi and Chandigarh, seat belts for cars, and helmets for two-wheelers are taken seriously. In Manali, you are fined if you are found carrying a plastic bag. There are vast open spaces in Chandigarh, and a park for each square. No hoardings are allowed; no encroachments are tolerated. The city breathes and allows you to breath fresh air. We too could do that only if we had the will.

The best part of a holiday is when you start unpacking. I write this as we are doing just that while contemplating our next holiday.

***

Archived by www.mygoldencopy.com

Preface to a Budget

Preface to a Budget
By Narendra Luther

Budgeting is a daily exercise for the common people. But the Government being too busy in spending money cannot waste time on such an activity on day-to-day basis. So it does its budgeting once in a year. There is too much unnecessary mystery about the budget. It is simply an exercise of balancing loot against largesse. Or, cut down every need to half.

There is the well-known story of a first-time Finance Minister in a State. The family heard him talk too much about the budget. One day they all surrounded him and asked him to explain what the term meant.

The greenhorn minister proceeded to educate them. He asked each member what he or she wanted. Every one expressed their wish. As usual, the wife’s turn came last. The simple old lady asked only for a salwar’. The great husband turned to her gravely and pronounced:’ All right, you want a salwar. One leg this year, the other next year. That is budget’.

That is all that is done on the national basis – adjusting wants to the available resources. It boils down to raising levies somewhere and lowering them elsewhere.

But that is not all. An elaborate speech has to be made by the Finance Minister to test the patience of his fellow lawmakers. He does it sometime by obfuscating the listeners with tons of statistics. Some relieve the tedium with a sprinkling of humour. Manmohan Singh started the practice of reciting couplets of Urdu poetry. Urdu couplets have one great quality. They elicit wah, wahs no matter whether the audience understands the meaning or not. That results in a quick approval of the budget. Chidambram emulated him by adding a few lines from a Tamil poet. People called it a novel budget only because of that element. They don’t understand the difference between poetry and fiction.

The Afternoon Budget

For half century our budget was presented at half past three in the afternoon. No one knew the reason for that except that the British had fixed that mahurat. Since we followed all their conventions, this too was meekly accepted. Some people believed that it was designed to give less time to the Opposition. Others said that after his long speech, the Finance Minister -- and more than him, the members were too exhausted to sit any longer. Also they got an evening to frame their comments and objections. Then one finance minister declared heretically that the budget would be presented at 11 AM. He explained that the British had fixed that time for their own convenience. They being five-and –a half-hours behind us, they wanted the Indian budget to be presented when their offices opened. How clever!

Budget speech is routinely followed by comments from the treasury and the Opposition. Their remarks are entirely predictable. The treasury benches keep their cheerleaders, and the Opposition their jeer leaders ready for the purpose. Te Opposition is paid to criticize the budget. Their comments can be forestalled. ‘The budget has nothing new’. ‘It takes away more than it gives’. ‘It is anti-poor’. It will increase the burden on the middle class’. ‘It is a script dictated by IMF and the World Bank’. ‘It is a jugglery with figures’. Once, a week before the presentation of the budget, I published all possible comments and reactions which leaders of different groups and parties could possibly make Some leaders rang up to thank me for the briefing. Others objected that I had deprived them of the chance of sounding original. Nothing is more recycled than the comments on budget from the treasury benches and the Opposition.

The Santa Clause Budget

Apart from the regular budget, sometime there is the miniature budget. It is called ‘vote-on –account’. It is put into effect when elections come in when the budget should have bee presented. It seeks temporary sanction of the legislature to cover the expenditure pending the constitution of the legislature so that there is no stoppage of work in government. It serves the purpose of dividing the budget into two parts. The first part is sweeter. All the milk of human kindness stagnating in the withered breast of the abstemious Finance Minister suddenly gushes forth for the common man. His taciturn face, which is duty –bound under oath not to smile, assumes the visage of the smiling Buddha. The Santa Clause opens his bag and starts distributing goodies to all and sundry. Old claims for increase in salaries are conceded. New concessions on income tax are announced. Custom duties are slashed. New jobs are sanctioned and promises made for creation of more. The government, which, like an alcoholic, was always in denial, and in a fighting mood suddenly, turns benign and indulgent. The Spanish bull transforms into the Indian kamadhenu. That is democracy at its best – government entirely for the people. No courting is more fervent than the one by the incumbent ministers for the voter.

The second part of the budget comes after the new government is installed. There are two possible scenarios there. Either the old government comes bask, or a different party forms the government. In the former case, it is like the morning after. All the frisson of the vote-on –account is dissipated. Now is the season of tightening of the purse strings by the government, and of belts by the people. The Kennedy-an clarion call for asking what you can do for the country is made from house top – no, from inside the House - once again. Sacrifices for the future are asked for. Those promises? Ah! They were made at a different time.

The Change of Guards

It is worse if another party from the Opposition come to power. Its ministers expose the financial profligacy of their predecessors. They explain how they looted the people, spent money on wasteful projects and in the course of that made money for themselves. They left the treasury empty and the government bankrupt. They had spent every penny, and left the State in a debt trap. Every citizen owed to the invisible creditor the equivalent of one month’s salary. All their promises made by them were hollow. Now we will have to build from scratch. For that people – you, dear readers and I, poor writer -- will have to make sacrifices and atone for our democratic sins. That is the time to pay the price. The new leaders, washed in milk will promise to set up an inquiry to look into the misdeeds of their predecessors. Law will be set on its course.

The Second Budget

The small, interim budget is over. We have got all that we could from it. Now the bell will toll. I wait in trepidation for the second, normal budget, which will put us back on the bumpy road, which, regrettably, was not repaired by last government. In Shakespeare’s phraseology, the maid would soon be wed – and the very sky will be changing.

***

Archived by www.mygoldencopy.com

Will the People?

Will the People?
By Narendra Luther

Last month I wrote about the elections coming sooner than expected in Andhra Pradesh. You have now to concede that what AP does today, the rest of the country does tomorrow. It has happened in this case too. Chandrababu Naidu wanted to cash in on the sympathy generated by the assassination attempt on him. But what prompted the NDA Government to advance the polls? Well the 25(?) parties knotted together and called the National Democratic Alliance invented a new term -- FGF.

Feel good Factor

Basically it was the victory of the BJP in the Hindi belt which gave hope and optimism to the main alliance party. If they could win those states, the electoral mood seemed to be in their favour. The Prime Minister had dominated the Saarc meeting. Relations with Pakistan were improving sidelining the Kashmir problem for the time being. The harvest was good and rats were getting fatter nibbling at the stocks. The growth rate of the economy did better than expected. Exports outdid the forecast. Our foreign exchange reserves were swelling. Foreign institutional investors started thinking no end of India. They bought stocks. They made other investments. Telephony had become cheaper. More and more people were using mobile phones. People could talk while they walked. The sensex was zooming. It is very emotional. It starts booming and then goes fut for no reason at all. But somehow it is considered as a barometer of the nation’s mood. And it showed the nation was mighty pleased with the performance of the government. So the political managers thought it was a good time to go to the country. The nation will say, go ahead; we give you another term.

Merit of the parliamentary system

So, first the speculation was encouraged. Testing of waters, some call it. Sounding people who matter. Note the reaction amongst the adversaries. Deny all rumours. In politics don’t believe anything unless it is officially denied. That is one of the merits of parliamentary democracy. It allows you to take people – which include your opponents -- by surprise. The presidential system does not allow that. It follows a dull predictable timetable. In the parliamentary form the ruling party has the advantage of deciding when and where to fight. NDA managers thought this was a good time. Who knows what might happen in October when elections were due?
The ruling party has another advantage. It can suddenly become generous, loosen the purse strings and start doling out goodies. It can concede long pending demands of the employees. It can raise salaries – or appoint a commission to recommend that. It can lower or even abolish import duties across the board. It can make things cheaper. It can raise the income tax exemption limit. It can announce many welfare measures which no one ever expected. All that adds to FGF. The ruling party is feeling good. It believes that the nation too is feeling good. The media starts feeling the coolth of the FGF. So, you are feeling good whether you like it or not.

Civil War

Elections are won by defeating opponents. Individual defeat individuals, parties defeat parties. That is done by demoralizing rivals. While you buck up your ranks, you sow confusion in the opponents’ camp. You raise questions about the legitimacy of the leadership of the biggest party. Election is civil war by other means; it is a love affair with the people. And according to old wisdom, every thing is fair in love and war.

There has been criticism of India’s foreign policy right from Nehru’s days. But no party which came to power made any change in its basic thrust. Now the same has happened to our economic policy. The Opposition attacks liberalization and globalization, but when it comes to power, it adopts it proudly as a part of the pragmatic approach in the national interest. So, what is the difference between one party and another? Ideology? But a coalition dilutes ideologies. Its manifesto is survival. You adopt the lowest common denominator and call it CMP – Common Minimum Programme. Without survival you can’t achieve anything. So, survival is the ideology of coalition. The opposition has to mobilize enough strength to defeat the incumbent party or group of parties. So, it looks for allies. Any party, which can add to it fighting power, is good enough. Here again, ideology is an empty term. You go and embrace your bitter enemies of yesterday. Like the advertisement in newspapers, to get the runaway son back home: ‘Mother serious. Return home. Every thing is forgiven -- and forgotten’.
Acquisitions & megers

This winter is the season of mergers and acquisitions. Big fish always swallowed the small one. But before the elections the small one suddenly develops an illusion of grandeur and makes a bid for reversing the old practice. The queen of the largest, oldest party goes to wish a happy birthday to the Dalit ki Beti because her bag contains some precious jingling votes. She can swing things. Old colleagues of the NCP forget the principle on which they broke away from the main party and established a new one. For one, it is ‘homecoming’. The other asks :where is the home? It is a house without the spirit which makes a structure into a home. He finds comfort in a party which he denounced earlier. The NCP breaks up. Mulayam Singh is still mulling over his options. There is time yet for that. He may find himself in the same camp, which has accommodated his arch enemy.

Where are their oft-repeated declarations? Where are the manifestoes? asks the common man. That is what prevents him from becoming uncommon. In his innocence he looks for steadfast adherence to principles and ideology. He/she forgets that politics is the art of the possible – making impossible into possible. Didn’t Emerson say that foolish consistency was the hobgoblin of a small mind? How can one be consistent in a changing situation?

Watch the circus

I have seen many elections. I have been updating myself on changing equations and new names and symbols. I do that because they tell me that my vote is precious. I should cast it carefully. On that depends my future and the future of the country. I like the sudden arrival of elections. We get so many freebies and incentives. There will be excitement in the air for some time. We will get to know the truth about various persons and parties from their opponents. That is one reason why I prefer parliamentary democracy. It can herald elections when we least expect it, like rain in dry season.

Let us now await the circus. At the end of that there will be new friendships and enmities. In the security of my superannuated situation I shall be amused to watch the loss of security of many and even forfeiture of deposits with the equanimity of a bystander.

***

Archived by www.mygoldencopy.com

The Looming Mandate

The Looming Mandate
by Narendra Luther

In our system of democracy we are assured of election at least once in five years or more often. So, we have the circus going on virtually all through the year some where or the other.

Earlier, in December we had elections in five states of Nagaland, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. The results belied the opinion poll predictions of experts and the media -- except in the case of Delhi. Various theories were touted up to foretell the results. One was the good old ‘anti-incumbency’ premise which puts the ruling party a disadvantage. This however has been belied repeatedly in West Bengal. It was refuted in Andhra Pradesh in the last elections when Chandrababu Naidu won a second term. The same happened this time in Delhi. Another hypothesis was that of the ‘fatigue factor’ of the ruling party. The defeat of Digvijay Singh in Madhya Pradesh was attributed to his ‘fatigue’ for having ruled for ten years. That however did not apply to in the case of West Bengal. Psephologists have been shown up to be false oracles time and again. They are no better than astrologers whose predictions also come true rarely and that too by accident.

The Bindi Belt

If Mulayam Singh had not dislodged the Dalit ki beti in Uttar Pradesh sometime ago, the recent elections would have converted the conventional Hindi belt into a Bindi belt. Another interesting feature of the recent elections was that ruling women represent all the possible situations in their ‘status’ One is a ‘bachelor’, another, (Rabri Devi) is married, one is separated from her husband, and the fourth is a widow. So it seems that the you cannot put them down in any situation. That is why men are reluctant to give them reservation.

The voter tries to throw out the ruling party in the hope of getting a better deal from the other. The other party is the same old one with new vows. Therein lies the tragedy of the electorate. They have to elect from one party or the other. They do not have the simple prerogative of the housewife of rejecting the entire lot of vegetables as not being good enough. Tall promises are routinely made and forgotten. The one repeated vow about eradication of corruption is fulfilled in its flagrant breach by the leaders themselves. Over the years corruption has only increased. One post-election phenomenon is that of – with due apologies to that noble creature --‘horse trading’. Ajit Jogi's attempt at that was exposed while many others have escaped undetected.

The Electoral Process

In many cases, candidates get elected with a minority of votes. It is a serious flaw in our system.

The second defect is that the electors do not have a choice of rubbishing all the candidates if they are not good enough. This has led some analyst and thinkers to suggest a two-fold reform in our electoral system. The first is that the successful candidate must get an absolute majority of votes. If he doesn’t in the first round, than a second or third round of the election should be held till one candidate gets absolute majority. This system is in vogue in a number of countries including France. Even some political parties have this system for their party elections. Readers will remember that John Major was elected leader of the Conservative Party of England in the second round. The second reform is to have what is called a ‘negative vote’. The elector should have the option of either electing or rejecting any or all the candidate. It will eliminate candidates with a criminal background and compel political parties to set up candidate with good credentials and public acceptance. The initiative taken by the Election Commission and upheld by the supreme court of candidates having to declare details about them including any criminal cases against them will reduce this to some extent. It is said that the proposed reform will necessitate re-elections in many cases. That is a price which we should be prepared to pay for a clean public life. It may be recalled that in the post World War II, De Gaulle had refused to participate in the elections. He stayed in his village and declared that he was available but would not contest. He was called by the people to take over the Presidency of France. Persons of that type can come to public life only if the system provides an avenue for them to walk in with their dignity.

The Crystal Ball

Now the Andhra Pradesh assembly has been dissolved and elections are due in the near future. The term of the Lok Sabha expires in September 2004. There is wide -spread speculation that it might be dissolved earlier and the election might be advanced. It is tempting therefore to look into the crystal ball to see the shape of things to come. As I mentioned no generalization can be advanced without providing for an exception. Since there is no likelihood of reform in the system in the near future, we have to look at the prospects in the light of the existing paradigm.

In Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu has taken a number of initiatives and is recognized as a most visionary and forward- looking chief minister in the country. He belied the anti- incumbency theory in the last elections. However his critics say that he has followed elitist programs and his attention has been urban -centered. It is said that Digvijay Singh of Madhya Pradesh lost because he devoted his attention to rural areas at the cost of urban areas. The reverse might happen in the case of Chandrababu Naidu. However even his enemies concedes that his political shrewdness is acute. The sympathy factor because of the near-fatal attack on him would probably have spent itself by the time he goes to the polls. There in no doubt however it will be drummed up by his party. He cannot therefore be easily written off.

At the national level the picture is very confused. The main fight will be between the Congress and the BJP with other smaller parties joining one or the other. The stands of both the parties are well known. BJP will no doubt harp on its achievements particularly in the field of economic development as exhibited in the steep rise of the Sensex. The Congress and their possible allies will highlight the dents made in the secular image of the country by BJP and its supporting organizations. The position however is far from polarized. Some surprises may be sprung from either side. In the recent elections the score on the corruption side was equal on both sides. The parties will be more cautious lest they should be caught either red - handed.

Whatever happens, the caravan will go on. We will have either the same set of rulers or new ones, which, as George Orwell showed in his ‘Animal Farm’ is the same thing. ‘The more things change, the more they remain the same’!

***
Archived by www.mygoldencopy.com

A The Problem of the New Mantra

A The Problem of the New Mantra
By Narendra Luther


I was born a slave, grew up as a free man, and am not sure in what status I will die. Joan of Arc heard voices. I hear slogans. Their burthen is that the mischief is afoot and I shall become a slave once again. The cacophony of the shouting brigades makes life interesting even though I don’t have any share in shaping it.

I came to manhood when Jawaharlal Nehru, the high priest of socialism, was guiding the destiny of India. He was a child of Fabian Socialism. Considering the level of industrial development at that stage, and the lack of entrepreneurship, it seemed right then to set up public undertakings. However, he modified the rigid statism of the Soviets to what he called ‘mixed economy’. In that system, the private sector was allowed to co-exist with the public sector. So, the official policy onslaught in India stopped with the capture of the ‘the commanding heights of the economy’. The tendency, however, was to extend the official tentacles and forays were made into businesses of all types.

The Indian Scene

in 2002, there were 240 public undertakings under the union government entailing an investment of over 324632 crores. They employed 19.94 lakh persons. There is a parallel public sector in the States. It has about 1000 units entailing an investment of about 120,000 crores. It has about 20 lakh employees. The overall investment in public sector thus represents about 20 percent of the GDP of India, and employment about 13 percent of the employment in the organized sector. 109 undertakings under the Union Government were making losses in 2002. The coal and power undertakings, which accounted for 40 percent of the total investment, were making heavy losses. In the States the profit making units were an exception.

The Collapse of Soviet Socialism

When the iron curtain began to be lifted, it was found that the promised land of the Communist Manifesto was as far away as it had always been. This realization was publicly acknowledged by a daring Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. He was the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1985 to 1991, during the last three years of which he was also the President of the country. He propounded the twin concepts of glasnost (more open form of government) and perestroika (restructuring). They spelt the doom of a economic and political system based on regimentation – and of the man himself. They also led inevitably to globalization and privatization of industries.

With the fall of the ‘model ‘ and its satellites, the entire philosophy of socialism with its corollary of state control came in for re-examination in many countries including India.

‘NEP’ in India

The new economic policy in India based on liberalization and globalization was inaugurated in 1991 by Dr. Manmohan Singh, the Finance Minister under PV Narasimha Rao. It had been long argued that the public sector has served its time. It was flabby, over-manned, and low in productivity. The quality of it goods was inferior and prices high. Used to operating in a regime of controls and administered prices, it was unable to face the new world of competition.

The World Bank was attaching conditionalities of free and liberal economies to its aid programmes. It canvassed for the abolition of distinction between production for domestic markets and exports, or in the purchase of goods.

In 1996, the Government of India set up a Disinvestment Commission by an executive order to advise on the methodology and specifics of disinvestment. It was reconstituted in 2001 with reduced authority.

This policy was not only continued but further refined by the NDA government. A separate Ministry of Disinvestment was created. During 1991-92 to 2002-03, equity was sold in 48 companies.

The same policy was adopted in the States also. The Planning Commission has been offering incentives for restructuring of the State public sector through a policy of Memos of Understanding. So far, it has entered such MOU’s with 12 States. In Andhra Pradesh, which led other States in this matter, the policy of reform and restructuring covered both public and the cooperative sectors. Since 1993-94, it has closed, privatized or merged 12 units and downsized or restructured nine units. By such measures, the State Government would be saving Rs. 256 crores annually after netting off VRS, and debt resolution. In addition, it will also save Rs. 608 crores annually in terms of guarantees. The exercise is being pursued vigorously. Similar programmes are going on in other States also.

Opposition & Hurdles

Naturally, opposition to such a policy was expected from the affected parties. And it was not late or short in coming. The employees of the public sector alleged that disinvestments resulted in ‘privatization of profits and nationalization of losses’. The Left parties supported nationwide agitations of employees against the policy of disinvestment. They argued that there was nothing wrong with the concept of socialism. The managements sabotaged it. It could be run efficiently if only there was a will to do so. The Government was under pressure of the World Bank and IMF to ‘sell out’ to the multinationals. It was bartering away its sovereignty and going in for a phase of neocolonialism.

Ashok Rao, President of the Federation of the National Confederation of Associations of Officers of Public Sector Undertakings articulated the concerns of the employees. He argued, for example, that though the book value of the investment on public undertakings was Rs. 1,13,234 crores (1991 figures), its replacement value is over 100 times that figure.

There is opposition to the policy from within the ranks of the main party of the ruling alliance – BJP. Even some ministers are opposed to it. The Swdeshi Jagran Manch opposed it as the return of the East India Company.

Undeterred by the criticism, the government is going ahead with its policy. It hit a roadblock when it decision to divest in the two oil companies – Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum – created by parliamentary enactment was challenged in he Supreme Court. The court gave its verdict that a creature of parliamentary enactment cannot be extinguished through executive orders. The Government lacks the majority in the Rajya Sabha to have the necessary amendment passed. So, the train has been derailed for the time being.

The Outlook

Bertrand Russell said the while fools are cocksure, wise men are always tentative. Wishing to be counted in the second category, I feel it foolhardy to pronounce on the merits of the controversy. In social policy there is nothing like God’s word. Democratic politics is predicated on the premise that theories about social welfare will vary like fashions. They come and go. The heresy of yesterday is the orthodoxy of today – and the cycle may still turn.

So, I remain an amused bystander. The drama is exciting enough as probably the last free show of my life.

***

Archived by www.mygoldencopy.com